election results comment

a fiasco.. so pissed...

 

this woman- hillary clinton- will not go away.

 

having said that my calculations (with an estimate on the still to be allocated delegates [12]) is that Hillary will end up netting 10-12 delegates last night... thats it!

 

Basically she got 190 or 191 to Obama's 180 or 179....

 

Of course the way its being written about in the media you'd think she kicked his ass.. and she did in a way... just not in the way that matters...delegates..there's a lot to be concerned about with obama's effort these past few days..

 

i have to say obama should hire me to run his hispanic outreach efforts because the incredibly abysmal performance shows gross ineptitude..to give up the entire southeast of texas and lose it with margins of the 70-30 variety is insane...i think i have an idea of what happened though..obama spent far too much time talking to people in austin texas which he knew he would carry... i would have taken it to her in hidalgo county... making an effort counts... i also believe the "he's a muslim" smear has worked better with hispanics (and catholics).... my aunt received one of these emails in spanish in argentina (and she believed it too- the wife of a former ambassador!)

 

the second guessing could go on all week.. obviously the last three days the obama campaign completely failed to control the news cycle... was this in part due to the media.. sure.. but there are things you can do to improve your coverage too... i didn't see much reaction from the obama people.. the whole bit over nafta and his advisor meeting with the canadians -i believe- cost him at least 5% of the ohio vote..Obama destroyed hillary in the early voting in texas but there was a big shift to hillary the past few days..

 

so what does this tell us moving forward?

 

there are 611 pledged delegates at stake... to me the magic number is about 1627 or thereabout which is the majority of the delegates (not including florida or michigan)... i do not believe the super delegates will overturn the pledged delegates but of course this is what the Hillary campaign is banking on: that the super delegates will see her momentum in ohio/texas and states to come and decide that she does have the best chance in the fall or at the very least that they can feel free to vote for her regardless of the fact she has less pledged delegates.. then there is the issue of florida and michigan..i do not know how that will play out other than to say the delegates as elected will not be recognized.. but there may emerge a concensus that the states should re-vote and that if obama can't win either of these two (big) states he should not be the nominee.... i have to honestly say that as things stand i do not believe obama would win either michigan or florida.. certainly not florida...and this also could be used by the super delegates to justify trumping the will of the primary voters (ie., look its true that Obama did get the most pledged delegates but he would not have had he either ran in florida and michigan or had the delegations from these states been recognized.

 

obama is probably at around 1378 and hillary is at 1242 or so.... this means to get to 1652 hillary has to win X of the 611 (its like 1627-1242 or whatever her current number of pledged delegates is)... its hard to imagine this happening although it could happen....

 

the next few days are going to be rough for obama and he's going to have to come up with a new gameplan.. his national numbers are on the way down and his numbers vs. mccain are plunging.. this can't be good news..people will be focusing on these numbers and they are going to look bad for obama.... but he'll take wyoming and mississippi.. people will say they don't count or aren't important (one because its a republican core state and the other because it has a huge black population) but he'll hopefully net some delegates and steady the ship... 

 

then its on to pennsylvania where the state's profile doesn't look good for obama (at all!) with the second largest elderly population and a majority catholic population...